“For decades, Florida was the largest, most important battleground state in presidential elections. Today, even the Biden campaign acknowledges that those days are over.”
– Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
By Richard Luthmann
Presidential Candidate Donald Trump has Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to thank for what appears to be an early electoral victory. Florida is no longer a battleground state.
DeSantis, who has focused on cleaning up Florida elections and implementing popular policies, has seen Republican voter registration surpass that of Democrats. The 2022 red wave in Florida further solidified the state’s position as a Republican stronghold.
Florida’s shift from a battleground state to a Republican stronghold is a testament to the efforts of local leaders and voters’ changing preferences. While Democrats continue to work towards regaining ground, the immediate future of Florida’s political landscape seems firmly in Republican hands.
Florida No Longer Battleground State
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, conceded that Florida is not in play this November. During a recent interview with John Heilemann, she laid out the campaign’s “six in six” strategy, focusing on the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. When asked about North Carolina, she hinted that it might also be considered a battleground state.
Dillon’s comments have thrown Florida politics into a tailspin. Many Democrats view them as contradicting an April memo from Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez declaring Florida “winnable.”
Florida-based communications consultant Kevin Cate expressed his frustration on X (formerly Twitter), stating, “Not a lot of staffers, consultants, or organizers are in a position to say it, but this was such an unnecessary, demoralizing gut punch.” He urged fellow Democrats to continue their efforts, saying, “One day, we will flip it.”
Despite O’Malley Dillon’s comments, Dan Kanninen, Biden-Harris battleground states director, maintained in a statement that Florida was ‘in play for President Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot’ and that the campaign ‘continues to scale up our presence and investments into the state.’ Abhi Rahman, a deputy communications director for the Democratic National Committee, said the state party was ‘undergoing a resurgence.’
Democrats Gaslighting Democrats?
At the same time, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried urged people not to ‘count Florida out’ and said the party was building for the long term, marshaling a sense of hope and resilience in the face of these devastating electoral changes.
Politico reported that Florida Democrats haven’t seen a surge in voter registration despite the Biden campaign’s claims to expand its footprint. A recent Fox News poll shows Trump leading Biden by four points, but Ryan Tyson, a pollster for Governor Ron DeSantis with a track record of accuracy in the state, recently had Trump ahead by ten points.
Neither side spends much money in Florida, a key indicator that it’s not competitive. Long-time Democratic analysts and consultants in Florida have grown weary of what they view as overly optimistic statements from Democratic leaders like Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison.
“Democrats are gaslighting Democrats about Florida,” said Fernand Amandi, a South Florida communications and political consultant known for his cable news appearances. Amandi’s statement reflects a broader sentiment among Florida Democrats who feel disheartened by the national party’s mixed messages, highlighting the emotional impact of these changes.
Trump Has DeSantis to Thank
Governor Ron DeSantis has worked to ensure that Florida’s elections are secure and transparent. He has pushed for policies that resonate with Floridians, contributing to the Republican Party’s growth in the state. The 2022 elections saw significant Republican victories, further cementing Florida’s red status.
While some Democrats hold onto hope that Florida can be turned blue in future elections, the current outlook suggests otherwise. The lack of significant investment and voter registration surges indicate that both parties recognize Florida’s current political reality.
Even though Biden’s campaign tries to maintain a presence in Florida, the state’s political landscape has shifted. Republicans have gained a stronghold, and Florida’s 30 electoral votes are expected to support Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
Biden’s campaign’s acknowledgment that Florida is no longer a battleground state is a pivotal moment in American politics. It underscores the evolving dynamics in key states and the strategic decisions campaigns must navigate. As the 2024 presidential election looms, the focus will shift to the true battleground states, where the race is tight and every vote carries significant weight.
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